SCB forecasts economic slowdown in late 2010

BANGKOK, 23 February 2010 (NNT) – Siam Commercial Bank (SCB) has forecast a slowing of GDP growth in the latter half of the year saying that current global economic recovery is based in impermanent factors.

A recent analysis of the Thai economy by the SCB Economic Intelligence Center revealed Thailand’s GDP in the 4th quarter of 2009 grew by 5.8%, better than earlier expected. The center believes the trend will continue through the 1st quarter of this year. The expansion is predicted to reach 6% compared to the same period of last year, driven by an export upturn.

According to the latest Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Industrial Production Leading Indicators report, the world economy and Thai exports should continue to do well for a short run. Exports in particular expanded by 30% last month compared to the same period of 2009, but GDP growth in the 3rd and 4th quarter of this year is expected to slow across the globe. Both SCB and OECD remind that the current economic rebound is based on temporary and volatile factors such as property tax measures and production boosts that once suspended will return the situation to its previous state.