Tourism to shrink 1% if rally extended

BANGKOK, 23 April 2010 (NNT) – The Kasikorn Research Center (KResearch) predicted that the Thai tourism could grow by 5.5% if the political crisis came to an end within the second quarter of this year; otherwise, it could shrink by at least 1%.

According to KResearch, the tourism business could recover in the third quarter if the domestic turmoil is terminated within the first half of the year. Through continuous promotion efforts of the government and the business operators, an estimate of 14.93 million foreign visitors, or a 5.5% growth, could be seen although the anticipated figures would be a drop from the beginning-of-the-year target of 15.56 million visitors, or a growth of 10%.

However, if the situation is prolonged to an extent that regaining confidence becomes difficult, the number of tourists might plunge for the second consecutive year at the rate of -1%, assuming that there is no airport seizure.

The businesses facing a hard time are the 10 hotels in Ratchaprasong District, of which the majority are five-star and the main customers are foreigners. Many restaurants and shops have been forced to close down while a number of seminars and banquets have also been called off.

In terms of the economic damage, 30% of the loss is from accommodation, followed by 23% from retail, 16% from dining, and the other 31% from transportation and entertainment.